The labour market has demonstrated its first indications for stable improvement and it can be concluded that it is steadily coming out of the recession. Last figures show that unemployment is expected to fall to 8.3% by the end of 2011 compared to 10.3% in 2010. The growing number of people working in the private and public sectors leads to a better purchasing capacity, better tax collection figures and respectively a greater turnover and cash flow in the country. In addition the household spending are bolstered by the improving labour market and therefore the private consumption is expected to grow by 1.2% in real terms this year, following two years of decline.
The industry in Bulgaria is forecasted to show real improvement as well, due to many factors related to the very high level of strategic export and the growth into the level of foreign direct investments. Exports have been the driving force of the economic recovery for the last couple of years and most of the analyses on the subject expect this trend to continue and even go further. Exports will continue posting robust growth showing an increase of 9.0% compared to the figures back in 2010. The countries that Bulgaria is mainly exporting to are the European Union States and its closest neighbours like Serbia, Turkey, Macedonia. However, it is expected that Bulgaria will put its efforts towards exploring new foreign markets outside Europe, following the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund. According to them Bulgaria, being part of the European Union and following the common EU quality standards, has the potential to be a successful exporter to most of the countries in the world. The optimistic forecast of the International Monetary Fund, which they demonstrated during their last visit in Bulgaria couple of days ago, predict the export good figures to push the real growth of GDP to 3% in 2011.
Bulgaria is one of the countries with the most stable fiscal discipline among the countries in the EU and this is highly appraised by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the foreign investors, which number grows every day. The structural reforms that the country has undertaken and the already achieved good results in the public and private sectors will be the key factors for increasing the potential growth in economy. This together with the political desire for an efficient adopting of the EU funds are expected to push Bulgaria forward and prevent the deep recession which many countries, like Greece, Portugal and Ireland, has fallen to.